participant
Jennifer Shaw
Stacy Bowman; Interim CFO, CEO, Vice President and Controller of the Company; Choi Company
Sumit Singh; CEO and Director; Choi Company
Anna Alekseevna Andreeva; expert auditor; Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division
Brian Nicholas Fitzgerald; expert auditor; Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, Research Division
Douglas in Anmouth; Doctor of Medical Sciences. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Research Division
Eric James Sheridan; Research Analyst; Goldman Sachs Group, Research Division
Lee Horowitz; Research Analyst; Deutsche Bank AG, Research Division
Quill by Nathaniel Jay; Researcher; Morgan Stanley, Research Division
Rakesh Babarbhai Patel; Doctor of Medical Sciences and Research Analyst. Raymond James & Company, Research Division
Rupesh Dinuj Parikh; Doctor of Medical Sciences and Senior Analyst; Oppenheimer and C. Company, Research Department
Stephen Emanuel Zacconi; Senior Research Analyst; Citigroup Inc., Research Division
Stephen Paul Forbes; analyst; Guggenheim Securities, LLC, Research Division
an offer
Operator or worker
We welcome you all. Thank you for joining Chewy's Q3 2023 earnings call today. My name is Sierra and I will be your moderator today. (Operator Instructions).
I would now like to turn the call over to our host Jen Xu from Chewy. Please continue.
Jennifer Shaw
Please join us today to discuss the third quarter 2023 results.
With me are Chewy CEO Sumit Singh; and interim CFO Stacy Bowman. Our earnings report and letter to shareholders, filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission, are posted on the Investor Relations section of our website at invest.chewy.com.
On today's call, we will make forward-looking statements, including statements about Chewy's future prospects, financial results, strategy, investments, industry trends and our ability to respond successfully to business risks. These statements are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors described under the heading "Risk Factors" in our Annual Report on Form 10 -K and elsewhere. . . Next Quarterly Report. Which could cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth in our forward-looking statements.
Reported results should not be taken as an indication of future results. Please also note that the forward-looking statements contained in this call are based on information currently available to us. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.
During this conference we will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures is provided on our investor relations website and in our earnings report and letter to shareholders, which were filed today with the Securities and Exchange Commission. . These non-GAAP measures are not intended to be a substitute for GAAP results.
In addition, unless otherwise noted, the results discussed today are for the third quarter of 2023 and all comparisons are for the third quarter of 2022. Finally, this entire discussion is posted on our Relations website. Investors. A replay of this call will also be available shortly on our Investor Relations website.
Now I want to transfer the call to Summit.
Sumit Singh
Thank you, Jane, and thank you to everyone who joined us on the call today.
Before we get started, as we've previously announced, we'll be hosting our first Investor Day next week on Thursday, December 14th. We look forward to meeting many of you in person and encourage everyone to watch the live webcast available on our Investor Relations website.
I'm excited to introduce you to our broader leadership team next week. We plan to provide a comprehensive update to our strategic roadmap, including a deeper analysis of our Chewy Health business, and will also share updated long-term financial goals. In light of next week's Investor Day, we'll be simplifying today's call to focus on this quarter's results and some key recent updates. We'll leave most of the strategy and innovation topics for next week.
Now let's look at the third chapter.
Chewy continues to outperform competitors and gain market share in today's environment. We reported net sales of $2.74 billion in the quarter, up 8% in an industry that is growing less than 10% and where inflation continues to return to historic levels. Additionally, the team excels at managing controllable factors, as evidenced by an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3% during the quarter.
In line with the expectations we expressed in our last earnings report, the number of active customers fell slightly sequentially. In the near term, we believe we remain well positioned to increase client active trends as the macroeconomic environment and favorable trends recover.
Specifically, we also demonstrated our ability to grow share of portfolio among our customers, with net sales per active customer, or NSPAC, exceeding $540, an increase of approximately 14%. Customer engagement remained high during the third quarter. Our industry-leading portfolio of non-discretionary resources and healthcare services, supported by our Autoship subscription service, continues to reinforce the structural strength and protected nature of our business model. The loyalty and ongoing spending of Autoship customers remains the same, with no change in their ordering behavior.
Additionally, we continue to get new customers to Autoship at a rapid pace. As a result, Autoship sales to customers continued to outpace overall revenue growth and grew approximately 13% during the quarter to account for more than 76% of net sales. Consumables and non-discretionary healthcare products make up the core of our business, which together represented approximately 85% of net sales in the third quarter.
The pharmaceutical business continues to grow to the benefit of the company as a whole, and is now a business worth more than $1 billion to us based on trailing 12-month net sales. On this scale, Chewy is the #1 pet pharmacy in the United States. We look forward to sharing more details with you about the financial results and overall strategic direction of our healthcare business at next week's Investor Day.
As planned, we launched Chewy Canada in late September, bringing Chewy's compelling value proposition to millions of Canadian pet owners. Initial consumer demand was strong. Autoship registration rates are high, our shipping experience is engaging, and customer satisfaction is high. Although we are still in the early stages, we are pleased with the progress we have made in the market and key success indicators point to a positive future.
Let's move on to the benefit. We recorded a gross margin of 28.5%, a new record. The strong gross margin reflects the benefits of mixed pricing, tight ad spend management and the strong performance of our logistics team. Finally, adjusted EBITDA margin was 3% during the quarter, although we expect significant investment growth.
Turning to our quarterly results, I would now like to comment on our Black Friday and Cyber Monday performance this year. During this important shopping week, we saw strong purchase intentions. Traffic and sales exceeded our expectations in all categories, including fast-moving consumer goods, and conversion rates were up compared to last year. New customer acquisition was 40% higher than the weekly average in the third quarter.
Although we have seen trends return to pre-holiday levels, Black Friday and Cyber Monday results have been encouraging. Specifically, while consumer buying behavior remains opportunistic in the current environment, our research results show that Chewy's value proposition continues to resonate and will continue to resonate as consumer demand and industry contributions grow.
Before I call Stacey again, I want to share a few stories about some important company-wide events.
In November, as part of our 2024 strategic planning process, we implemented actions to reduce the number of employees in certain areas of the organization. This decision was made to study in our staff the commitment to continue creating a more agile and disciplined enterprise and to connect our efforts with the priorities we will see, to take advantage of the most significant signs from our customers and to generate greater value for the sake of the Contractor.
Although we have consolidated some roles within the organization, we continue to invest in other high priority areas. Looking ahead to 2024, we hope these actions will allow us to continue investing in our growth initiatives. We are grateful to our team members for their contributions and remain committed to supporting them during this transition period.
Finally, I am proud to announce that David Reeder will be joining us as Chewy's new CFO beginning in early 2024. Dave joins us from GlobalFoundries, where he currently serves as CFO. He has extensive experience in operational and finance roles at GlobalFoundries, Lexmark, Cisco, Broadcom and others. I look forward to working with Dave as we continue to pursue the many exciting opportunities for growth and profitability in our ecosystem.
I would also like to thank Stacy for all she has done to support me and the Chewy team in her role as interim CFO. Following Dave's start date, Stacey will continue to serve as Director of Accounting.
And then I'll turn the call over to Stacey.
Stacy Bowman
Thanks to Sam and thanks to everyone who joined us today.
In the third quarter, net sales rose 8.2% to $2.74 billion. Sales growth to leveraged customers outpaced overall net sales growth by about 460 basis points to $2.09 billion in the third quarter, an increase of 12.8%. Autoship customer sales now amount to 76.4% of total net sales.
We ended the third quarter with 20.3 million active customers. Our key customer engagement metric, NSPAC, grew 13.8% year-over-year to $543, again hitting a new all-time high.
As we move forward with earnings, please note that my analysis of financial measures, where applicable, relates to measures that exclude stock-based compensation expense and related taxes, as well as certain other adjustments disclosed in the reports our SEC, if applicable. The same goes for my management analysis and financial forecasts.
Gross margin was 28.5% in the third quarter. Our third quarter gross margin highlighted our ability to deliver consistent earnings growth in this portion of the earnings report, and we continue to believe there is significant opportunity for further gross margin expansion over time.
Let's continue the OpEx theme. Selling and administrative expenses totaled $545.9 million, or 19.9% of net sales, representing a 30 basis point decrease in leverage compared to the third quarter of 2022. This increase was primarily due to investments related to initiatives our growth. Advertising and marketing expenses in the third quarter were $179.2 million, or 6.5% of net sales, in line with our expectations of 6-7% of net sales.
Adjusted net income in the third quarter was $63 million, an increase of $14.6 million. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $82.1 million, an increase of $11.7 million, representing an adjusted EBITDA margin of 3%.
Third-quarter free cash flow of $48.5 million remained strong, reflecting $80.2 million in net cash generated from operating activities and $31.7 million in capital expenditures. Our total third quarter 12-month free cash flow was more than $300 million and demonstrated our ability to act quickly and generate significant cash flow in all economic conditions.
Capital expenditures primarily include investments in automated distribution centers and ongoing technology projects. As expected, our capital expenditures declined this quarter following the above-average intensity of capital expenditures in the second quarter, and we expect capital expenditures in 2023 to remain in the range of 1.5% to 2% of net sales, consistent with historical investment levels.
We ended the third quarter with $957.2 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, an increase of approximately $351 million over our balance sheet at the same time last year, and we remain debt free. At the end of the third quarter, our liquidity, based on cash, marketable securities and ABL availability, was $1.7 billion.
This concludes the summary of Chapter Three.
So let me talk now about our guidance for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. While we remain confident in the overall strength of the pet category, as well as Chewy's ability to deliver growth superior to the industry average , we've updated our year-end perspective. Profits. Guidance to consider short-term macroeconomic conditions.
We estimate fourth quarter net sales to be between $2.78 billion and $2.8 billion, representing approximately 3% year-over-year growth. We lowered and revised our 2023 net income guidance to between $11.08 billion and $11.1 billion, representing approximately 10% growth over full-year 2022. We reiterated our 2023 EBITDA margin estimate full of 3%.
As we update our model, let's also note that we expect free cash flow for the full year 2023 to be 2.5 times the free cash flow we generated for the full year 2022, implying a higher adjusted EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate. Its amount is 80...%.
Our third quarter results demonstrate once again Chewy's unique ability to deliver strong results in today's environment. We expect to continue to gain market share and increase profitability as the pet industry returns to sustainable trends. We remain excited about the strategic opportunities that await us. We hope to see many of you next week.
In this case, I will transfer the call to the operator for any questions.
Question and answer session
Operator or worker
(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Eric Sheridan of Goldman Sachs.
Eric James Sheridan
I just want to go back to the fourth quarter earnings guidance. Can you talk about some of the headwinds we have to think about for fourth quarter revenue growth? And in this country there is a promotion or a great competition as macroeconomic environmental elements and tail, or a simple way to provide effective inflation surveillance. a year ago?
Sumit Singh
Eric, this is the Summit. So I will talk about it.
Our forecasts primarily reflect sales growth, which is expected to exceed industry sales growth. So we continue to see changes since our comments compared to July through August during our last conversation.
So here are some important elements. If you look year-over-year, revenue sharing is moving away from pricing, business units, and other links. Therefore, from a competitive point of view, there is no price benefit. This, along with the lower number of food and feed items this year compared to last year, explains the type of indicators you see compared to last year.
In terms of the weather forecast, the moderation we talked about last quarter and that we started to see from July to August remains in place. We see the most significant impact of this slowdown in the non-auto repair areas of our business, right? Therefore, 25% of the activity does not go through Autoship, and it mainly applies to components with a high degree of discretion, where some components are expendable. And that's connected and combined with the impact of the new customer groups that we talked about last time, where loyalty is still earned, right? These customers were early adopters and we took steps to address them and complicate the view on a macro level, which kept vulnerability and the overall cost structure somewhat opportunistic.
All this is reflected in the new leadership we have provided. We left last quarter and started to see that trend, but it's still there. Therefore, it is high time to restore and renew the leadership in the form we see today.
Despite all this, we have an advantage in the automotive sector, which remains remarkably strong and stable thanks to the current macroeconomic conditions. I will be happy to continue it.
And I just want to reiterate that among the 23-year net sales forecast, we're going to be up about 10% over last year, which means an increase in weight. Then, at next week's Investor Day, we intend to share additional insights about the growth algorithm and long-term outlook.
Operator or worker
Your next question comes from JPMorgan's Anomut thread.
Douglas Till Antomut
Summit, received a preview of fourth quarter earnings. Can you help us balance a little bit the positive indicators for Black Friday and Cyberpolnate, which you mentioned, with other expectations for the fourth quarter? Is this just an advertising purpose? I wonder why this gives you confidence in the long run?
And secondly, maybe you can talk a little bit about what you think about the gross margin in the fourth quarter. What is clear is that the EBITDA index (an estimate of EBITDA) has fallen. You mentioned something about earnings, but is that related to inventory promotion, inflation normalization or seasonality? Are there other factors we should think about?
Sumit Singh
naturally. There are many of them out there. Good to hear from you, Arc. There are many of them out there. So let me check one by one, and Stacey can join anytime if I'm missing something.
So, first, Black Friday advertising activity was slightly more active than a year ago, although overall it was still rational. So we pay attention to how we market, the specific offerings we bring to market, how customers interact with the overall offering, and how our existing customers interact with our healthy pool of new customers. It is already selected. In fact, it shows that the business is healthy and if it is properly motivated and customers are in a good mood, they really respond. Therefore, this seems to indicate the sector's ability to recover once customer pressure eases. That's why we're providing these reviews: we think they'll be helpful.
Overall, our view on gross profit, which should remain around 28%, is that we are still talking. Therefore, we do not expect any impact on gross profit as we expect the future advertising environment to remain rational with seasonal constraints similar to what we saw with Black Friday and other Cyber Holidays. I'm glad I can add more color to the ad because we're playing in the fourth quarter.
So the third quarter EBITDA estimate that you saw is essentially the result of the additional dollars spent on Black Friday, which is about 30 basis points higher than last year. Therefore this component is under construction. Second, our investments started to increase in the third quarter and continued in the fourth quarter. So if you normalize it, it will bring you back to the earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) levels that we achieved in the first half.
Do you have anything to add, Stister?
Stacey Bowman
Yes, I just want to reiterate that our profit in the fourth quarter reflects the seasonal effects that typically occur in holiday advertising. However, as Samiti just mentioned, this is largely rational and in line with our expectations. We will consider several investments to support our growing investment. Therefore, this affects adjusted earnings before benefits, taxes, depreciation and amortization. But I would confirm once again that we are very proud of our ability to finance our growth independently. So we continue to do this throughout the year.
Operator or worker
Our next question comes from Lauren Shing from Morgan Stanley.
Nathaniel Jay Verzer
It's Knightsezer, not Lauren. Can you better understand the immediate effect on total additions, customer churn and NSPAC? So has the overall economic environment inherent in Q4 expectations worsened in Q3? Or sustainable in general?
Sumit Singh
Knight, this is the Summit. So at the aggregate economic level: the trends that we started to see in the third quarter have remained pretty much intact, right? Typically you see a graded approach - costs remain low and you see a shift away from this approach to storage. So, in general, nothing has changed. We have not seen any significant decline in trading on our end. Thus, customers who are attracted to distinctive options are not actually cheaper customers.
Consequently, the loyalty to the main groups of consumables and the general frequency of customers to abandon the installed feeds suitable for their animals are clearly visible. The power of the AutosHip model that facilitates attachment and non-destructive behavior. And all the slowdown we're seeing is especially clear in our non-mobile homework. The most sensitive to the evaluated approach includes the categories of this type of treatment.
I think you have the second part of your question, which is additional comments on NSPAC and offensive ads.
Our customer feedback hasn't necessarily changed. In the third quarter, we start from the fact that we expect more extensive results. If you, I mean, definitely, we have about 100,000, 150,000 customers a year, 100,000 customers on average. We do not expect any compensation from this and the mood of our customers will not change until some macroeconomic issues are resolved.
We're happy with how we spent Black Friday and the power of the internet. We are happy to respond to customers in the categories of consumables, automatic settings and health elements. Our recovery rate is still very high. So these are all positive trends. The fourth chapter usually offers a lot of seasonal freedom. If you look at this number in the annual accounts, you will find that it is less than last year. However, compared to 2021, estimated legislation has decreased by an average of around 15%, and this is clearly having an effect.
Stacey Bowman
Yes. I will return to the matter of NSPAC. We continue to significantly increase our share of the portfolio. Therefore, this continues to show our loyal customer base, and continues to expand into other categories, such as the highly profitable and healthier category. We've seen growth, as evidenced by our benchmark performance this quarter.
Operator or worker
Our next question comes from Anna Andreva from Nidem.
Anna Andreva Andreva
big. Some of us. I think if we continue to see inflation leave the market next year and consumers remain price sensitive, what do you think about a Chewy profitability versus earnings? In other words, would you refuse to share the ad for this non-Autoship customer to preserve profits, or is it unnecessary?
Second, the situation continues with Canada. Can you beat Canada in terms of quarterly net sales and growth? Do you see this type of consumer behavior in this region as well?
Sumit Singh
naturally. I. So, first, discount/promotion costs did not increase significantly. Since the beginning of this year, we said we can spend 30 basis points on promotional offers than last year. To date, we have not seen these costs achieved under any circumstances. We saw this only during the holidays, when the opponent and advertising costs were about 30 basis points compared to last year. In addition, we have returned to our usual discount levels, which may now increase slightly, simply in response to seasonal trends. However, overall, from our perspective, the statement remains relatively rational.
In addition, I want to make sure that it is clear to us that our ability to overcome various advertising fluctuations, however small, is reflected in the consistently high profit index.
Finally, I want to say that we continue to work closely with our supporting partners to ensure a high level of MAP compliance, which actually protects prices and increases the margin in the field of pets, and we hope that the MAP system will remain in place. Recap the market as a whole as we continue to move forward through the fourth quarter and beyond. So that's the first part of your answer.
Second, in Canada, yes, we love the way this company operates. We continue to expand the arrival and opening of geographic regions, which we will show you here over the next two quarters. While, in general, during the twenty-third fiscal year, the activity did not have a significant impact. Therefore, we will refrain from giving numbers or recommendations accordingly. We saw how consumers responded positively to promotional promotional offers on gift-giving day. Until then, we are actually stepping back and forth to manage or build our business, relying on recurring themes. Therefore, we pay more attention to the attractiveness of the car, not transactions that are not related to the attractiveness of the car.
Operator or worker
Next question from Rick Patel and Raymond James.
Babarhai Patel Rockets
I had a question for active customers. So to what extent is the resumption of Cofide-19 affecting you from a strong wind perspective? Since we're not just thinking about macros and pet training, can you talk about the effect of your leverage to attract new clients under your control? I was wondering if you are considering using discounts or more marketing to attract more customers to your ecosystem?
Sumit Singh
naturally. Therefore, the Covid group, which only glanced at the data here, is still very stable. The most important capital cases we have noticed have already occurred in the short-term group. Therefore, I discussed a little in the text of the results of the last quarter about the customers who were selected during the 22nd year, or the short-term groups that showed wiser behavior.
In addition, the cluster of the Covvi-19 virus continues to improve and the level of flows continues to be stable. We have already exceeded the 2020-year-old group, mainly the 21-year-old regiment, except the 21-year regiment. For this reason, we systematically claim that their holding represents only a small percentage of keeping our best classical classes. This topic has not actually changed.
The second part of your question: What is your effect to accelerate the increase in the number of subscribers? Are you interested in marketing deductions?
Thus, our marketing philosophy, as you know, is not to control ourselves by spending a certain amount of money, but instead spend money until we get lucrative returns. Therefore, it is a more flexible budget and our full -capacity marketing team. Most of our expenses are at the end of printing and health products are mixed in the middle. Thus, while the budget of the upper conversion route is less flexible, we are at the bottom of the lower conversion path, we act in the way we realize the market demand and the estimated value of consumer life.
Therefore, in our opinion, we have made the proper improvement. Estimated legislation, which allows customers to reach the platform in a very healthy way, is certainly confidential. The changes we notice above all historically are all delta areas that come mainly from these groups. Our prominent activities continue to overcome the historical percentages of participation and we are satisfied because they create high quality groups.
In terms of discounts, we always believe in creating regular and quality commercial activities, not transactions. We used the opponent's tactics at the beginning of the 23rd and at the end of 22. This is one of the reasons that makes us believe that this group is not as strong as our old group. Therefore, it is a great lesson, even if the intuition is correct, we go and come from it, to see again that it is true and suddenly left. We do not plan to return it.
Yes, I will be happy to take over this job.
Operator or worker
Our next question came from Stephen Sobstyk de City.
Stephen Emmanuel Sabaj
I want to continue discussing prices. Therefore, it seems that the fourth quarter estimates indicate that prices will not generally change compared to last year. Are you thinking about your initial expectations for the twenty -fourth year? We have heard more about the supply of pets entering the market. So I'm just curiosity, what do you think about next year's price?
Sumi Singh
Yes, this is a good question. So some moments. First, from our point of view, we do not consider the presence of deflationist pressures in the sector of consumer goods or health services. We hear a specific question or make a market comment on the possibility of food prices in the near future. We are not sure that the contraction pressure that can occur or fall on traditional players in the field of food and food products will be included in the category of pets, right? There are categories of consumer materials and animals with brands. Mardona has invested a lot of money. We want to protect the MAP price determination system, which is generally not in regular spices. However, such comments.
Second, the inflation continues to decrease and for this three -month, the average figure is not mysterious. In the end, we believe that soon this number will decrease at unquestionable levels and that at the beginning of next year it will have no effect on the price or at the advantage. You can see some of the prices advantages in the first quarter, depending on the cost development during the 22 and 23rd, but you will not see the effect or benefit of the price after the first three months. .
What does she mean? In other words, when price conditions are made normal again, the growth of structural units will determine most of the total increase in revenue. We believe Chewy will maintain a center that allows her to increase her part of the business in 2024.
Stephen Emmanuel Sabaj
Hasani. The concept. I have a short suite. So, by declaring costs of costs, only for more clarity: do you think these savings will generate a net profit? Or should you reinvest these savings in other initiatives?
Sumi Singh
There is no need for this, we will choose to re-invest. The answer is yes to both. Yes, some of them will affect the benefits. Thus, thanks to this procedure, we will increase its effect and evaluate it in more detail when we tell you about expectations for 2024. We will also invest in what we consider priority for companies. Ready to attract new customers and growth in the future.
Operator or worker
Our next question came from Brian Fitzgerald de Wells Varo.
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